Bitcoin now has 10.83M coins held at a loss. ETF buyers are back, for now.
The ETF tape finally turned green, but BlackRock missed the move and Bitcoin's ownership stress is now the story.
CryptoVibe Desk · bitcoin · etfs · blackrock
- →Glassnode data cited by CoinDesk shows 10.83M BTC held at a loss versus 9.22M held in profit today.
- →U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs took in $221.7M on July 3, but IBIT still lost $40.43M that day.
- →Watch whether this becomes a flow streak before July 10, because one green day does not fix $5.4B in 2026 outflows.
- Spot bitcoin ETF → A fund that trades on a stock exchange and holds bitcoin directly for investors.
- Supply held at a loss → Coins are counted here when their current price is below the price where they last moved.
- Power law support → A model line some analysts use to estimate where bitcoin has often found buyers in past cycles.
Bitcoin has 10.83M coins held at a loss today. CoinDesk cited Glassnode data showing only 9.22M BTC held in profit. That is the first loss-over-profit crossover of this cycle.
The ETF tape finally turned green. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs took in $221.7M on July 3, per CoinDesk's SoSoValue data. That ended a 10-day outflow streak worth $2.73B.
The catch is who bought. Fidelity's FBTC led with $165.96M of inflows on July 3, per CoinDesk. ARKB added $91.84M and VanEck's HODL added $4.35M. BlackRock's IBIT lost $40.43M on the same day.
That matters for the BlackRock consolidation story. IBIT has been the default center of gravity for bitcoin ETF flows. Yesterday's print says the bid can move without it. If you're watching ETF market share, this is the number that interrupts the easy version.
Bitcoin was at $61,361 as of CoinDesk's July 3 update. The same report put the move about 44% below January's $109,000 high. Loss supply crossing profit supply usually marks stress, not automatic repair.
The historical read is blunt. CoinDesk noted similar crossovers in 2018-19 and 2022 came around capitulation phases. Those markets did not snap back cleanly. They based for months before the next durable move.
Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer added the level traders are now watching. U.Today reported July 2 that Timmer flagged bitcoin's power law support at $58,237. He said he did not yet see a catalyst for reversal.
Bitcoin already traded below $58,000 earlier this week, per CoinDesk, before bouncing near $61,700. That makes the model line a reference point, not a floor. The tape matches the story: stress is real, but forced selling is no longer the only flow on screen.
The next print matters more than yesterday's relief. One $221.7M inflow day does not erase $5.4B in year-to-date ETF outflows. It only says buyers showed up again, for now.
FBTC's $165.96M is the headline number. And that's the catch: it doesn't break down whether advisors or market makers drove it. If it was market makers, Thursday was mechanical routing, not a demand shift. That distinction matters before you call this a turn.
Before July 10, watch whether spot bitcoin ETFs post at least three net-inflow days and IBIT returns positive; if not, Thursday was a bounce, not a turn.
Primary links and supporting reads used by the desk for this story.
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