Bitcoin climbed back above $63,000. The real test starts after the holiday.

Bitcoin climbed above $63,000 on July 4.

CoinDesk showed bitcoin up 1.4% over 24 hours and 3.6% over seven days. The move reversed late-June losses, but U.S. desks were mostly closed for Independence Day. Thin tape can make real buying look bigger than it is.

The ETF line helped. Per U.Today, SosoValue data showed U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $221 million in the latest reported session. That broke a ten-day outflow streak. The date in that report looks messy, so the number needs confirmation from SosoValue directly.

Still, the direction matters. ETF demand is cash, not leverage. If you're holding bitcoin after a weak June, that is the cleaner version of a bounce.

Macro gave traders a reason to buy. AMBCrypto cited June nonfarm payrolls at 57,000, against a 115,000 estimate. The same report said May was revised to 129,000. A softer jobs print pushed the 2-year Treasury yield down more than 5 basis points.

Fed Chair Warsh said inflation risks have come down, per AMBCrypto. That gave crypto a rate-cut story again. The tape matches the story, for now.

XRP had the sharper move. CoinDesk reported XRP rose 5.3% to $1.18 on July 4. Its market cap reached roughly $73 billion, enough to pass USDC for fifth place. On-chain data shows XRP holders at their deepest average losses on record.

That is a strange setup. Washed-out holders can support a short-term bounce. It also means plenty of people are waiting to sell into relief.

The counterweight is leverage. CoinShares, cited by AMBCrypto, called the move an early-stage bottoming setup and flagged rising open interest with weak price action. That is not clean confirmation. Leverage is building without price to back it up.

The number to watch is ETF flow after U.S. desks return. If inflows hold and bitcoin stays above $63,000 through normal trading, the bounce gets harder to dismiss.