Bitcoin held $62,600 after $283M in forced selling. Three events hit today that can each move it alone.
CPI, the Fed Chair, and a Hormuz blockade all land in Tuesday's session. Options markets are priced for quiet, and that's the catch.
CryptoVibe Desk · bitcoin · macro · liquidations
- →Bitcoin held $62,600 this morning after $283M in liquidations, with 74% of those hitting long positions in the past 24 hours.
- →CPI, Fed Chair Warsh's testimony, and US Hormuz enforcement against Iranian shipping all land in Tuesday's session.
- →Watch $61,300 through today's 4:00 p.m. ET Hormuz enforcement window: a close below it would show the oil shock is hitting crypto.
- liquidations → When a trader borrows money to bet on price direction and the price moves against them, the exchange automatically closes the trade.
- implied volatility (DVOL) → A number that shows how much movement options traders expect, based on what they are paying for options contracts.
- annualized basis → The gap between bitcoin's futures price and spot price, shown as a yearly percentage.
Bitcoin is at $62,600 this morning. CoinDesk says it slid from $64,400 to $61,800 on Monday. $283 million in leveraged positions were force-closed across crypto in 24 hours. Seventy-four percent of those were longs.
The bet is simple: options look too calm for this calendar. Three events land in Tuesday's session. June CPI prints at 8:30 a.m. ET. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testifies before Congress at 10:00 a.m. ET. US military enforcement of a Hormuz blockade starts at 4:00 p.m. ET.
The options market is priced for quiet. Deribit DVOL sat at 37.43 this morning, near multi-year lows, according to CoinDesk. The 3-month annualized basis is 3.8%. That is not a market priced for today.
Korean investors added a bid under price. Upbit trading volume reportedly jumped 1,426% after the KOSPI fell 10% since Friday. Wu Blockchain reported the figure, cited by CoinDesk. It is not exchange-verified, so treat it as directional.
If you're long here, the only number that matters today is $61,300. That is where the Binance order book gets thin, per CoinDesk heatmap data.
Warsh's testimony is the risk at 10:00 a.m. ET. If he stays hawkish or vague, he adds fuel to a market already carrying Monday's $283M forced selling into a 4:00 p.m. ET oil shock.
Watch BTC holding above $61,300 through today's 4:00 p.m. ET Hormuz enforcement window. A close below that level before the session ends would show the oil shock is starting to hit crypto.
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